Three very different bets: Why UK restaurant brands are heading to Germany, Dubai and the US
We keep hearing Germany, the UAE and the US come up in conversations about international restaurant expansion. More operators are looking overseas, given our beleaguered home market, but beyond growth potential, these three have very little in common. The latest line-up of British exports includes Loungers and Pizza Pilgrims, both preparing launches in Germany; JKS, set to add Gymkhana alongside its existing Berenjak site in the UAE; and Kricket, Sandwich Sandwich and Spud Bros, which have each announced they are exploring options in Dubai. Meanwhile, Dishoom and JKS are entering the US, while Hawksmoor continues to add to its existing estate there.
We took a closer look at why three such different markets are finding their way to the top of brands’ expansion lists and found three very different opportunities:
· Germany: a wealthy and geographically close market spread across regional cities, making it relatively accessible for building capability and regional scale.
· The UAE: a high-spend market where demand is heavily concentrated in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with strong tourism and a mature franchise model, although currently depressed by geopolitical disruptions.
· The US: a high-risk, high-reward opportunity with the scale to transform a business, but also the distance and complexity to consume one.
Germany feels the most familiar, but that can be misleading. It is rich, nearby and full of substantial regional cities, yet the consumer foodservice market is only valued at around $53bn, less than half the UK’s $109bn (Euromonitor). This is despite having a population around 20% larger than the UK. It is also highly fragmented, with demand spread across independents rather than dominated by national chains. The recent VAT cut on restaurant food (dropping from 19% to 7%) will help with pricing and affordability but does not remove more challenging issues around consumer spending and frequency, labour, property and a high degree of regional nuance.
Loungers’ approach to Germany is interesting in that it is following the same secondary-city and high-street logic that has driven its UK success. Its first German site will open in Essen (not Berlin, Hamburg or Munich) under the name Southville. It is also localising the offer, adding reservations and full table service and adapting half the menu to German tastes.
Pizza Pilgrims, meanwhile, is planning two Munich openings and will concentrate on proving the concept in one city and building some density of operations before moving further. Its majority owner, L’Osteria, already operates more than 200 restaurants across Europe and is providing relationships, property knowledge and local infrastructure that would take years to build independently.
The UAE presents almost the opposite opportunity: unlike Germany's dispersed consumer base, Dubai and Abu Dhabi concentrate affluent local, expat and tourist demand into a relatively small, dense market that attracts intense competition. A key advantage of the UAE is its mature franchise market with plenty of precedent for successful partnerships. The UK has become known for producing high-quality concepts with lean, stress-tested operating models. Pair that with a strong local partner bringing property access, licensing knowledge, recruitment and local operating infrastructure, and it can be a powerful combination. Emirates Leisure Retail now operates more than 160 Costa cafés, Al Tayer has opened 32 Caffè Neros, RMAL has 12 Wagamamas, and Eathos is continuing to expand Rosa’s Thai having entered the market a few years ago. Impressive scale for such a small market. The UAE is a particularly complex market for localisation, with nationalities, incomes and spending power varying hugely by catchment. In prime central locations, British brands can stay close to their original concept: Rosa’s Thai’s Dubai offer, for example, is very similar to the UK, minus the pork. Others have adapted further: JKS has made Berenjak more premium than the Soho original, with an extended grills menu and sharing mains, while Gymkhana will feature dishes exclusive to the local market. Testing adaptations in more locally driven catchments, such as Berenjak’s unlicensed Jumeirah restaurant, can also help prove a model for markets such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where appealing to local Arab audiences is essential.
Then there is the US. For UK brands, this is a market with the potential to transform the scale of a business, home to some of the world’s biggest restaurant groups and $1.55tn of foodservice sales a year. Yet remarkably few British brands have achieved meaningful scale there. Gordon Ramsay has built an impressive 32-restaurant portfolio across multiple concepts and Pret now has 54 locations, but that has taken more than 25 years to build and was not without its challenges. Beyond these, British footprints remain relatively small: Caffè Nero has around 36 sites after 12 years in the market and Wagamama remains in single digits.
The US is a mature market, with inflation-adjusted growth forecast at a lacklustre 1.3% in 2026. And, as its name suggests, it is very much a collection of distinct states, rather than one homogenous market. Labour laws, regulation, taxation, unionisation, rents, consumer habits and competitive dynamics vary materially by city and state, making expansion more like a series of individual market entries than a country-wide rollout, with significant associated legal, tax and professional fees.
The UK’s track record of successfully entering the US is patchy at best. Pizza Express exited after an unsuccessful early attempt, while Carluccio’s closed both of its Washington restaurants after finding the market more competitive and margins lower than expected. Against that backdrop, Dishoom has taken a deliberately cautious approach to market entry: testing demand through a breakfast pop-up before committing to New York, while securing outside investment for the first time through a deal with L Catterton, reported to value the business at around £300m. Only once both were in place did it commit to a NoMad site, expected to open in 2027.
Reflecting back, while Germany, Dubai and the US are all attractive markets, they represent very different bets with very different risk-reward profiles. Success is far from guaranteed and each requires a different balance of adaptation and consistency, a different route to market and a different level of management attention. Fully understanding the local consumer, adapting what needs to change, protecting what makes the brand worth exporting and being realistic about the management effort required alongside the needs of the home business are all critical. The advice we hear is unanimous: do your research, put in the time and, above all, choose the right partner. Ultimately, there isn’t a blueprint for international expansion, and different strategies will work for different brands: Germany is a bet on building regional scale closer to home, the UAE on tapping into higher spend and scaling through experienced partners, and the US on accepting greater complexity and risk in pursuit of transformational growth.
